Getting to yes on impeachment -- Dec. 12, 2019 column

By MARSHA MERCER

Last June, I wrote that impeaching President Donald Trump was a bad idea for Democrats because most people opposed it.

I also thought House Democrats would not go for impeachment unless and until public sentiment changed.

I was wrong on both counts.

As the House moves toward a vote on impeachment next week, most people still oppose it. I no longer think it’s a bad idea for Democrats, though it is politically risky.

Not impeaching Trump would be smart, practical politics, but allowing his corruption to go unchecked would harm our democracy. Sometimes you have to take a stand.

The testimony of courageous former federal officials before the House Intelligence Committee persuaded me Democrats are right to hold the president accountable for his conduct regarding Ukraine.

The House will vote on two articles of impeachment -- abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

“They said these two things – they’re not even a crime!” Trump shouted Tuesday at a rally in Pennsylvania, apparently disappointed Democrats didn’t hit him with more. He sees impeachment as a political plus.

The constitutional standard for impeachment includes “high crimes and misdemeanors,” which Congress, not criminal statutes, defines.

Democrats charge he abused the power of his office when he tried to force a foreign government to help him gain personal advantage over a political opponent, and he obstructed Congress in its investigations.

Trump has continually flouted norms of personal behavior with impunity. Now, House Democrats are saying we have a president, not a king, and no one is above the law.

Reflecting our hyper-polarized country, almost all House Democrats will vote for impeachment while House Republicans en masse likely will vote no.

The Republican-controlled Senate will hold a trial after the first of the year. Whether it will be the longer show trial Trump wants or a shorter one favored by some senators isn’t clear.

Under the Constitution, removing the president from office requires a vote of two-thirds of the Senate. The Senate will vote to acquit Trump, keeping him in office.

He then will declare vindication and play the victim to rally voters next November.

Public opinion hasn’t changed much over the last six months. Last June, 54% opposed Trump’s impeachment and removal from office while 41% favored it, CNN reported.

That was after Robert Mueller’s report investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election was released. Mueller’s report did not exonerate Trump, as he and his allies repeatedly claim. Nor did it move public opinion.

Since then, news broke of a whistleblower’s complaint about Trump’s July 25 phone call to Ukraine’s new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the House Intelligence Committee held hearings that laid out the case against Trump.

Trump asked Zelensky for “a favor”: investigate leading Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden and his son Hunter, who had served on the board of a Ukrainian gas company.

Trump also held up hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine, releasing the funds only after he learned of the whistleblower’s complaint.

Support for impeachment has inched up.  For example, 45% of voters believe Trump should be impeached and removed from office, but 50% say he should not, the latest Monmouth University Poll reported Wednesday.

Trump remains defiant, insisting he has done nothing wrong, stonewalling congressional investigations of his actions. That suits his coalition just fine.

Evangelicals like his Supreme Court and other judicial appointments. The rich like his tax cut and their healthy stock portfolios. Gun makers and enthusiasts like his stand against gun control. Business likes his rollback of environmental laws and other regulations.

Even vapers like Trump because he walked away from his promise to ban some flavored e-cigarette products.

In the past, Republicans would have been uncomfortable with the president’s coziness with Russia – especially as it interferes in another election. But Trump’s “America first” policies make it OK to be isolationist and anti-immigrant.

So, yes, Trump will survive impeachment. Ultimately, history will judge whether  Democratic or Republican lawmakers did the right thing.  

But will voters reward him with a second term? That depends on the Democrats’ choice as their presidential nominee and how well the candidate withstands the vile campaign of innuendo, misrepresentations and outright lies Trump will wage to ruin his opponent.

Sad to say, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

©2019 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.

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Impeachment -- a bad idea for Democrats -- June 6, 2019 column

Here's my column of June 6, 2019. Posting belatedly as I was out of town.

By MARSHA MERCER

California Democrats at a state party convention Saturday chanted “Impeach! Impeach!” while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was making a speech. 

“We will go where the facts lead us,” Pelosi said, trying to reassure the crowd. “President Trump will be held accountable for his actions – in the Congress, in the courts, and in the court of public opinion.”

But when?

“We can’t wait,” a coalition of progressive groups declared Tuesday. The groups wrote Pelosi to express “deep disappointment and concern” she hasn’t gotten on with impeachment.

“In the very near future, the Trump era will be one that evokes the question – what did you do? We urge you to use your power to lead and to stop asking us to wait,” the letter from CREDO Action and about two dozen other groups said.

Special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 did not exonerate Trump, as he and his allies claim.

“If we had confidence that the president clearly did not commit a crime, we would have said that,” Mueller said last month in his only public remarks on the report.

But Mueller’s team also did not recommend the Justice Department make a case against Trump.

“Under long-standing department policy, a president cannot be charged with a federal crime while he is in office . . . Charging the president with a crime was therefore not an option we could consider,” Mueller explained.

To many Democrats, it seemed Mueller was inviting Congress to hold Trump accountable.

The Constitution says the president may be impeached for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors,” but leaves what constitutes an impeachable offense to the House.

Impeachment starts in the House, but removing a president from office then requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate. That, as Pelosi has said, will require a compelling case -- with facts.

It’s a heavy lift. No president has ever been removed from office.

For his part, Trump calls impeachment “dirty, filthy, disgusting” and is stonewalling House requests for testimony or documents by White House aides.

Meanwhile, 11 of the more than 20 Democratic presidential candidates have expressed “full-throated support” for immediate impeachment proceedings, according to HuffPost, which keeps a running list.

Joe Biden has not jumped on the impeachment bandwagon, but after Mueller spoke, 

Biden’s campaign said impeachment “may be unavoidable.”

Nearly 60 House Democrats from true-blue districts support opening an impeachment inquiry.

But even 60 members are less than one quarter of the 235 Democrats in the House. 

Many centrist Democratic representatives from swing districts either haven’t decided or won’t say whether they support impeachment.   

They and Pelosi recognize something many on the left ignore: Democrats could impeach Trump and make liberals feel good – and the Republican-controlled Senate likely would leave Trump in office.

Were he to remain in office, as Bill Clinton did after his impeachment, Trump likely would emerge stronger for 2020, his followers more motivated to re-elect him.

A stickier problem for Democrats is most Americans oppose Trump’s impeachment and removal, according to polls.

Among registered voters overall, 54 percent oppose while only 41 percent favor impeachment and removal, the latest CNN poll reported Sunday.

While 76 percent Democrats say yes, only 35 percent of independents and 6 percent of Republicans want to see Trump impeached and removed.   

House Democratic leaders may be moving too slowly for the party’s liberal base, but they risk alienating the 65 percent of voters who say Trump already has faced more investigations than any previous president.

On Monday, Rep. Jerrold Nadler of New York, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, will open a series of hearings into the Mueller report. These are not impeachment hearings but could lead to them.

So far, only one Republican supports impeachment -- Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan, a libertarian.

We don’t know what facts Democratic investigations may turn up that could change minds. But here are two more numbers from the CNN poll to keep in mind: While 93 percent of Republicans oppose Trump’s impeachment and removal, so do 59 percent of independents.

Without the latter on board, impeachment and removal don’t stand a chance.

©2019 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.

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Think you know impeachment? Take our quiz -- Jan. 10, 2019 column

By MARSHA MERCER

New Democratic House members are prodding House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to get on with impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. But Pelosi and other seasoned Democratic leaders have put the brakes on such talk, saying they need to wait for special counsel Robert Mueller to present his findings on Russian interference in the 2016 election.

For his part, Trump says he can’t be impeached because he’s doing a good job. He tweeted Jan. 4: “They only want to impeach me because they know they can’t win in 2020, too much success!”

So what exactly does impeachment entail? Test your knowledge with our quiz. Answers are below.   

1       1 Under the Constitution, who can be impeached?

A.      Only the president

B.      Only the president and vice president

C.      The president, vice president and all civil officers of the United States

2       2  Which of these are causes for impeachment and removal from office as set forth in the Constitution?

A.      Repeated lies and criminal behavior

B.      Treason, bribery and other high crimes and misdemeanors

C.      Collusion with a foreign entity  

3       3 What happens in the House during impeachment proceedings?

A.      The House brings formal charges of malfeasance

B.      The House has a trial  

C.      The House has the power to remove the president from office

D.      All of the above

4       4 What is the Senate’s role in impeachment?

A.      The Senate rubberstamps the House’s verdict

B.      The Senate conducts a trial with House members as prosecutors

C.      Only the Senate has the power to remove the president from office

D.      B and C 

5          5 Which two presidents have been impeached?

A.      Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton

B.      Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton

C.      Andrew Jackson and Bill Clinton  

6      6 Which president was impeached and removed from office?

A.      Andrew Johnson

B.      Bill Clinton

C.      Richard Nixon

D.      None

7       7 Who is next in line to be president after the president and vice president?

A.      Speaker of the House

B.      Secretary of State

C.      President Pro Tempore of the Senate

D.      Congress would elect the president

8       8   What vote is required in the House to impeach a president?

A.      Simple majority

B.      Two-thirds

9      9 What vote is required in the Senate to remove a president?

A.      Simple majority

B.      Two-thirds

1      10 Who presides over an impeachment trial in the Senate?

A.      The senator with the most seniority

B.      The Supreme Court justice selected by other justices

C.      Chief Justice of the United States

1      11 How did impeachment affect President Bill Clinton’s job approval ratings?

A.      His ratings plummeted to the lowest level of his presidency

B.      His ratings jumped to the highest level of his presidency

1      12 How did Republican impeachment proceedings against Clinton affect the approval ratings of Republicans?

A.      The approval rating of the Republican Party jumped 10 percent

B.      The Republican approval rating plummeted 10 percent

Answers:

1)      C – Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution

2)      B – The Constitution doesn’t define “high crimes and misdemeanors,” leaving it to  Congress.

3)      A -- The House’s role is to bring the charges.

4)      D – The Senate holds a trial and has sole power to remove from office.

5)      A – Nixon resigned after the House drew up articles of impeachment but before he would have been impeached.  

6)      D – No presidents have been removed from office.

7)      A – Yes, Nancy Pelosi would be next in line if President Trump and Vice President Pence were unable to serve.

8)      A

9)      B

10)   C

11)   B – After the House approved two articles of impeachment against Clinton for lying under oath and obstructing justice in December 1998, his approval rating jumped 10 points to 73 percent, even though most people thought he had lied and was less honest and trustworthy, a Gallup poll found.

12)  B – Gallup found less than one-third of the country had a favorable view of the GOP.

SOURCES: Senate.gov, House.gov, National Archives, Library of Congress, Gallup.com

© 2019 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.

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Congress must stop Trump from firing Mueller -- March 22, 2018 column

By MARSHA MERCER

Why does he act so guilty? What does he have to hide? What does Vladimir Putin have on him?

Those are questions being raised by Republicans as well as Democrats as President Donald Trump seems poised to end special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian tampering in the 2016 election. 

“When you are innocent . . . act like it,” Rep. Trey Gowdy, Republican of South Carolina, urged the president Sunday on “Fox News Sunday.”

“If you’ve done nothing wrong, you should want the investigation to be as fulsome and thorough as possible,” said Gowdy, a member of the House Intelligence Committee.  

Sen. Lindsey Graham warned firing Mueller would “probably” be an impeachable offense. Graham should know. He was one of the House managers of the impeachment case against President Bill Clinton in 1998. 

If Trump were to fire Mueller, “I can’t see it being anything other than a corrupt purpose,” Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said Tuesday on the Hugh Hewitt radio show.

Sen. John McCain, Republican of Arizona, tweeted: “Special Counsel Mueller has served our country with honesty and integrity. It is critical he be allowed to complete a thorough investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election – unimpeded.”

Fine words. Now it’s time for Congress to pass stalled legislation to protect the work of special counsels, including Mueller.

Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee voted Thursday to release, after classified material is redacted, their report that there was no collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians, a finding they announced March 13. Democrats on the committee strongly oppose release, saying Republicans ended the investigation prematurely.

Until now, many GOP members of Congress have said legislation to protect special counsels was unnecessary because Trump would never fire Mueller.

But Trump is reshaping his legal team, hiring Joseph diGenova, a former U.S. attorney who claims the FBI and Justice Department framed Trump. And last weekend Trump launched tweets attacking Mueller personally.

“The Mueller probe should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime,” he tweeted. The Mueller probe is “a total WITCH HUNT with massive conflicts of interest!”

John Dowd, Trump’s personal attorney, said Saturday it was time to shut down the Mueller probe, although he later claimed he was only speaking for himself. He resigned Thursday, reportedly because Trump was ignoring his advice.

White House lawyer Ty Cobb said in a statement Sunday: “The White House yet again confirms that the president is not considering or discussing the firing” of Mueller.

But Trump’s calling out Mueller by name was a barrage too far. The timing was also suspect, coming just after Mueller reportedly subpoenaed financial records of the Trump Organization.

“Unfortunately, the statements and actions from the president and his lawyer over the weekend have led me to believe that the special counsel is now at real, immediate risk of being removed, and I believe the Senate needs to pass legislation to ensure that does not happen,” Sen. Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat and cosponsor of a bipartisan bill with Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, said Monday.

The Special Counsel Integrity Act would create a judicial review process to prevent the removal of special counsels without good cause.

Another bill, the Special Counsel Independence Protection Act, would permit the firing of a special counsel only if a federal court found “misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause for removal.”

Introduced by Graham in the Senate, it has three Democratic cosponsors, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut.

Companion bills for both bills have been introduced in the House. One bill by Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, Democrat of Texas, has 130 cosponsors, all Democrats, including Reps. A. Donald McEachin and Don Beyer of Virginia.

The bills had hearings in the respective Judiciary committees but are stalled.

Trump seems eager to shut Mueller down or at least to discredit his findings. Republicans as well as Democrats say Mueller should be allowed to complete his investigation.

Members of Congress must do their work so Mueller can do his.

© 2018 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.

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