Why the rush to 2016? -- Aug. 21, 2014 column

By MARSHA MERCER

Woo-hoo! She’s heading back to Iowa!

News that Hillary Clinton will attend Sen. Tom Harkin’s steak fry on Sept. 14 set off yet another wave of “she’s in” speculation among her fans.

Clinton has avoided the Hawkeye State since Barack Obama cleaned her clock in the 2008 Democratic caucuses.  She came in an embarrassing third, behind the now disgraced John Edwards.  

But both the queen of Democratic politics and her consort – that’s Bill Clinton -- will speak at Harkin’s 37^th annual steak fry in Indianola, the last before the Iowa Democrat retires. It’s the event of the presidential preseason in Iowa, whose caucuses will launch the nation’s 2016 presidential contest. 

The way Hillary’s supporters see it: If Clinton is going to Iowa, she must be running for president. If she’s running, she’s the Democrats’ runaway choice. And if she’s the Democratic presidential nominee, hello, history.

Whoa, hoss.  We’ve seen inevitable Hillary before, circa 2006. Anything can happen.

The steak fry is a long 18 months before the caucuses, tentatively scheduled for Feb. 1.  The 2016 election – in which there may be a good Republican presidential nominee this time – is more than two years away. Let’s all take a deep breath. Americans don’t do coronations.

Even the most admired woman in America should have to make her case for the presidency to her party.  

Now is the time for Democratic activists to look at their options. Working a few steps from the president for eight years ought to count for something. A vice president used to have a leg up on the competition if he chose to run. 

Biden says he’s weighing his decision, but he’s not gaining traction. He served in the Senate for 36 years, including as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, but none of his former colleagues have endorsed him for president.

   

“It’s Hillary’s moment,” senators say, although many likely would decide, absent Hillary, that it’s Biden’s. One person who speaks highly of Biden is his boss.

“I think Joe would be a superb president,” Obama told Evan Osnos of The New Yorker. “He has seen the job up close, he knows what the job entails. He understands how to separate what’s really important from what’s less important.”

Perhaps most telling was this: “He’s got great people skills. He enjoys politics, and he’s got important relationships up on the Hill that would serve him well,” Obama said. Osnos’ profile of Biden was in the July 28 issue.

Poor Joe. He’s reduced to wishing weatherman Al Roker a happy birthday and cracking wise on the “Today” show.  How about Roker as head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?

“Look, if I were running the administration or the next one, I’d have you in it,” Biden said Wednesday on the show. “I mean, what the hell?”

And that brings us to Biden’s big challenge. Can he overcome his motor mouth and gaffes?

The good news for Biden is that Americans have short memories and most have forgotten about his brushes with plagiarism in law school and on the presidential campaign trail in 2007. He dropped out after he appropriated phrases from other politicians’ speeches.

In the Obama White House, Biden has worked mainly behind the scenes on foreign policy hotspots, but he could take a more visible role after the midterm elections. If the Senate were to split 50-50, he would be the tie-breaker and power broker.

Two Democrats who apparently see a president in their shaving mirror are Martin O’Malley, governor of Maryland, and Brian Schweitzer, ex-governor of Montana. In addition, if Clinton declines to run, Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia and others might step up.

Among Republicans, the smart money is on former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, although he has been almost as coy as Clinton about his intentions. Analysts also mention Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Biden said in February his chances of running for president were 50-50. Having run twice, Biden is taking his time. He says he will campaign for Democratic candidates and raise money around the country, including Iowa and other early presidential states.

Whatever happens, Biden will be in a position to make his case.

©2014 Marsha Mercer

All you need to know about Washington in 2014: It's an election year -- Dec. 24, 2013 column

By MARSHA MERCER

Trying to put unlucky 2013 behind him, President Barack Obama was upbeat about the New Year.

    

“I firmly believe that 2014 can be a breakthrough year for America,” he said Dec. 20 at a White House news conference before heading to Hawaii for vacation.

“It’s probably too early to declare an outbreak of bipartisanship,” the president conceded, “But it’s also fair to say we’re not condemned to endless gridlock.”

OK, it’s the holiday season, so let’s be charitable. It’s possible that 2014 will be more productive than 2013 in the nation’s capital. But don’t bet your new MacBook Air on Democrats and Republicans suddenly discovering they have a lot in common.

Everything you need to know about 2014 in Washington can be summarized in two words: midterm elections.

Obama and members of Congress are battling for their survival. Everything they say – and they will say far more than they will do -- will be focused on winning middle-class votes. The technical term is pandering, and both parties are masters of the craft.

The stakes are large. If Obama’s approval rating doesn’t rebound from the miserable 42 percent he hit in the latest CBS News poll, he’ll be an albatross for Democratic candidates running for the House and Senate next November.  And if Republicans don’t stop playing fiscal brinksmanship games without offering alternatives, they risk writing their own political obituaries.

Some things won’t change when the ball drops at Times Square. Health care and the economy will dominate politics. Republicans will keep describing Obamacare as a train wreck and the economy as an abject failure. Democrats hope voters won’t listen once people start getting insurance coverage and the economy continues to grow.  Yes, those are big ifs.

Republicans in the Senate and House are convinced that public disapproval of the Affordable Care Act will translate into GOP votes. That means more hostile hearings presided over by House Republicans and more horror tales from Senate Republicans, although we may be spared another attempt to defund the law, given the political hits the GOP took from forcing a government shutdown last fall in a futile attempt to stop the law.

The bipartisan budget agreement this month showed that compromise is possible on Capitol Hill. An early test of whether bipartisanship will last will come over the debt ceiling. The Treasury Department says the amount the government can borrow must be increased by early March so we can continue paying our bills.

Conservative Republicans will demand budget concessions; Obama has reiterated his refusal to negotiate. Such a standoff also led to the shutdown.  

But 2014 has the added intrigue of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s tough re-election fight in Kentucky. With only a 31 percent approval rating in his state, McConnell is the least popular senator in the land. In Kentucky, though, 31 percent was also Obama’s approval rating, which doesn’t help Democrats. 

If McConnell beats tea party challenger Matt Bevin in the Republican primary, he still has a formidable general election competitor in Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky secretary of state.

For their part, Democrats on Capitol Hill will focus on working families and income inequality. A priority is raising the minimum wage. Sen. Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat who’s retiring, has proposed an increase from $7.25 to $10.10 an hour, which Obama supports.

Republicans counter that a higher minimum wage will mean that employers hire fewer workers. Both sides see the minimum wage as a potent campaign issue.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says the first order of business in January will be extending long-term unemployment benefits, which Congress allowed to expire this month.  House Speaker John Boehner may go along with the extension, if spending cuts are part of the package.

Progressive Democrats, including Harkin and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, are defying conventional wisdom that curbing entitlements must be part of any long-term fiscal plan.  They say Social Security benefits need to be raised, not cut.

Critics say it’s irresponsible to suggest raising benefits, which would require higher payroll taxes, and nobody, but nobody, expects anything to happen. But it does make a dandy campaign promise.

So much pandering ahead in 2014, and we haven’t even touched on 2016. Happy New Year!   

© 2013 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.

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