Bubba to the rescue? Bill Clinton deploys to save Democrats -- Sept. 4, 2014 column

By MARSHA MERCER

Bubba is back.

Nearly 18 years after he ran his last campaign, former President Bill Clinton is on the campaign trail for beleaguered Democrats, and he hasn’t lost his touch.

When he stands before a cheering throng, bites his lip and says, “I love Maine”… Connecticut… Arkansas… (insert your state here), Clinton sounds like he means it, and Democrats love him back.

Bill Clinton is by far the most admired president of the last quarter century, polls show. Forty-two percent of registered voters say they admire him most among recent presidents.

Republicans have no comparable presidential star power. Only 17 percent said they admire former President George W. Bush the most, the NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Annenberg survey also reported in June. His father, George H. W. Bush, and Obama each edged out the younger Bush by just one point in the survey.

On the campaign trail, Clinton praises inclusiveness and cooperation, both of which are sorely lacking these days. But he, of course, isn’t on any ballot. Does his approval mean anything? Polls suggest it does.

    

Thirty-seven percent of voters said they were more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Bill Clinton while 27 percent said they were less likely to do so – for a 10 percent net positive, a Wall Street Journal poll in March found.  In contrast, Obama’s endorsement of a candidate meant a net negative of 20 percent, similar to a tea party endorsement.

The South could be pivotal in the battle for Senate control, and Clinton may be especially helpful in motivating African American voters. The former president is welcome in red-ish Southern states where Obama is not, including Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and Arkansas.

 

To win Senate control, Republicans need to pick up six seats. They hope to hold onto Georgia, where Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss is retiring. Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, is in a tight race with Republican businessman David Perdue. Clinton will be the political star power at a Sept. 13 fundraiser for Nunn at the home of singer-dancer Usher in Atlanta.

 

Clinton also is helping Sens. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, and Mark Pryor in Arkansas, among others.  He has campaigned for Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, who’s hoping to topple Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

He’s even going to Florida to help the party-changing Charlie Crist, who is in a close gubernatorial contest against incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Scott. Times have changed since Crist, previously a Republican and independent, called for Clinton’s presidential resignation in 1998.

The last thing Republicans want is an election about the glory that was Bill Clinton. They want the midterms to be about Obama and what they see as his failed policies, including health care reform. 

Typically the party of an unpopular president suffers significant losses in midterm elections.  In 2006, Republicans lost 30 House seats and six Senate seats when George W. Bush’s job approval ratings were the same or slightly lower than Obama’s ratings are now. About 42 percent of people approve of the job Obama is doing.

In 2010, Obama’s first midterm election, Democrats lost 63 House seats, ceding control of the House to Republicans, and six Senate seats.

But the 1998 midterm, the last of Clinton’s presidency, played out under the shadow of the Monica Lewinsky affair and Republicans plans for impeachment, and yet Democrats managed to add five House seats and lose no Senate seats.

That’s a strong enough performance to gladden Democratic hearts and kindle hope that Clinton can yet save the Senate.

In 1998, though, Clinton and Democrats had the wind of a booming economy at their backs in an election where no single issue dominated.

 

This year, voters are disgruntled with the economy and the country’s direction, and there’s again talk of impeachment. Republicans are already planning their GOP Senate agenda for next year.

 

With Democrats’ backs to the wall, Clinton’s magic looks awfully good. And Clinton, whether to show his own vigor or to score points for Hillary in advance of 2016, is only happy to oblige.

There are nine weeks until Election Day. And Bubba is back.

©2014 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.

Women voters likely power players in fall elections -- again -- July 23, 2014 column

By MARSHA MERCER

Today’s question: Would we be better off if more women held political office?

Yes, say nearly two in three Americans, a Gallup poll reported Monday.

The question was, “Do you think the country would be governed better or worse if more women were in political office?” Sixty-three percent of Americans said better -- a jump from 57 percent in 1995 and 2000. The trend bodes well for women candidates in this fall’s congressional elections.  

While the number of women serving in Congress has been inching up – to a record 79 in the 435-member House and 20 in the 100-member Senate – women are still just 18.5 percent of the Congress. In the House, 60 women are Democrats and 19 are Republicans. In the Senate, there are 16 Ds and four Rs.

Gallup didn’t ask why people thought women would do better, but perhaps a Grateful Dead song has the answer: “That’s right, the women are smarter.”

In any case, women vote. Women were the majority of voters in 2012 and largely decided to keep President Barack Obama in the White House and continue Democratic control of the Senate, according to analyses of exit polls by the Center for American Women in Politics at Rutgers.

Fifty-five percent of women voted for Obama, compared with 52 percent of men. Women’s votes also elected seven Senate Democrats: Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Tim Kaine in Virginia, Jon Tester in Montana and Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, the center’s analysis found.

Women don’t always vote for woman candidates, of course. In the Senate race in Connecticut, men split their votes evenly between Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon, while “women showed a clear and decisive preference for Murphy,” who won, the center said.

This time around, with continued Democratic control of the Senate increasingly in doubt, Democrats are pinning their hopes on Michelle Nunn to flip the red-state Georgia seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss.

Democrat Nunn, daughter of popular former Sen. Sam Nunn, is running against Republican businessman David Perdue, former CEO of Reebok and other firms. Perdue beat Rep. Jack Kingston, a 22-year House veteran, Tuesday in a GOP runoff election.

Neither Nunn nor Perdue has elective experience – and that may be a plus. Forty-nine percent of Americans told Gallup the country would be governed better by newcomers to office.

If the Georgia race is pivotal and close, we might have to wait to learn which party will control the Senate. If neither candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote Nov. 4, there will be a runoff Dec. 2.

Nunn is one of six women candidates running for open seats in five states. West Virginia is poised to make state history by electing its first woman senator. The election is between Democrat Natalie Tennant and Republican Shelley Moore Capito. 

Four states have never sent a woman to the House or Senate: Delaware, Iowa, Mississippi and Vermont. But that could change. In Iowa, tea party favorite Joni Ernst, a Republican, is in a tight race with Democrat Bruce Braley.  

Two of the most vulnerable Senate incumbents are Democratic women, Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Political prognosticators rate both races tossups.

In another high-profile race, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is working to keep his seat representing Kentucky from Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky’s secretary of state.

Whether a general inclination to support more women in office translates into votes depends on how individual candidates sell themselves and on the local dynamics of each race.

In 2012, Rep. Michelle Bachmann, R-Minn., dropped her presidential bid after eking out just 5 percent of the Iowa caucus vote. She’s retiring from the House but said this week she might run for president again in 2016. 

 “Like with anything else, practice makes perfect,” she said in an interview with Real Clear Politics, adding that she had participated in 15 presidential debates.

No, unlike learning the piano, for instance, practice doesn’t make perfect in politics. On that men and women voters agree.

Still, if you’re looking for clues about the elections this fall, it makes sense to watch the women.  

© 2014 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.

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