White Southern Democrats face extinction -- Nov. 6, 2014 column

By MARSHA MERCER

Fifty years ago, President Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 at a joyous White House ceremony. That night, though, when presidential aide Bill Moyers stopped by the living quarters, he found the president melancholy.

“He looked at me morosely and said, in effect, `I think we just handed the South to the Republicans for the rest of my life and yours.’” Moyers recounted on PBS, adding, “And so we had.”

The 2014 midterm elections marked the demise of the white Southern Democrat. On Tuesday, voters fired the last one in the U.S. House from a state in the Deep South.

Democrats also lost Senate races in Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina and nearly lost Virginia. A Dec. 6 run-off in Louisiana is a challenge for Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu. All seven gubernatorial races in the South went to the GOP.  

Republicans ran the table across the country, not just in the South, but considering that Southern Democrats once ruled Congress – 103 of 105 House members from the South were Democrats in 1950 -- their disappearance is remarkable.

Dubbed “the loneliest man in Congress,” Rep. John Barrow, D-Ga., had the distinction of being the last white Democrat in the House from the Deep South. Barrow, a conservative who had the endorsement of the National Rifle Association, had held his seat since 2004. He lost to Republican Rick Allen. And so ends an era.

In the next Congress, every one of the Democrats in the House from the Deep South states of Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina will be black.

Virginia will have two white Democratic members in the U.S. House, both from Northern Virginia, and one black House member representing a majority-black district that stretches from Richmond to Hampton Roads.

An anti-President Obama fever felled Barrow and other Democrats. Southern voters weren’t just turning the page; they were tearing it up.

Even having a distinguished political pedigree couldn’t save the Southern Democrat. Also in Georgia, Jason Carter, grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, and Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, lost their bids for governor and senator, respectively.

Nunn campaigned with her dad, promising to adopt his practice of working across the political aisle to get things done.

In Arkansas, Sen. Mark Pryor, son of former Sen. David Pryor, lost his re-election bid to freshman Rep. Tom Cotton, an Iraq War veteran. Pryor has been a name in Arkansas politics since 1960 when David Pryor was first elected a state representative. He went on to be a congressman and governor before serving in the Senate from 1979 to 1997.

The South has evolved a two-party system deeply divided by race. White voters form the base of the Republican party and African Americans the base of the Democratic party.  

“The racial split remains one of the starkest divides in Georgia politics,” the Associated Press reported from early exit polls.

Republican Senate candidate David Perdue won about 70 percent of the white vote and Nunn took the overwhelming majority of the black vote, AP said. Nunn had hoped to win enough of the white vote to force Perdue into a run-off, but he won with 53 percent to her 45 percent.

Mark Pryor also won the black vote, exit polls reported, but he suffered a stinging loss to Cotton, 57 percent to 40 percent.

The Southern disaffection with Democrats is hardly new. Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina switched parties and became a Republican three months after Johnson signed the Civil Rights law. Sen. Harry F. Byrd Jr. of Virginia quit the party and became an independent in 1970, and Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama became a Republican in 1994.

Ronald Reagan courted Southern voters in 1980 and enlisted support for his legislative agenda from the Conservative Democratic Forum, known as the boll weevils, many of whom were Southerners concerned about deficit spending.

The Blue Dog Coalition of fiscally conservative House Democrats, founded by Southerners in 1995 in a last gasp to remain relevant, has been shrinking. In 2010, it had about 50 members and before the midterm was down to 19. Now it has lost its last white member from the Deep South.    

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Bubba to the rescue? Bill Clinton deploys to save Democrats -- Sept. 4, 2014 column

By MARSHA MERCER

Bubba is back.

Nearly 18 years after he ran his last campaign, former President Bill Clinton is on the campaign trail for beleaguered Democrats, and he hasn’t lost his touch.

When he stands before a cheering throng, bites his lip and says, “I love Maine”… Connecticut… Arkansas… (insert your state here), Clinton sounds like he means it, and Democrats love him back.

Bill Clinton is by far the most admired president of the last quarter century, polls show. Forty-two percent of registered voters say they admire him most among recent presidents.

Republicans have no comparable presidential star power. Only 17 percent said they admire former President George W. Bush the most, the NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Annenberg survey also reported in June. His father, George H. W. Bush, and Obama each edged out the younger Bush by just one point in the survey.

On the campaign trail, Clinton praises inclusiveness and cooperation, both of which are sorely lacking these days. But he, of course, isn’t on any ballot. Does his approval mean anything? Polls suggest it does.

    

Thirty-seven percent of voters said they were more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Bill Clinton while 27 percent said they were less likely to do so – for a 10 percent net positive, a Wall Street Journal poll in March found.  In contrast, Obama’s endorsement of a candidate meant a net negative of 20 percent, similar to a tea party endorsement.

The South could be pivotal in the battle for Senate control, and Clinton may be especially helpful in motivating African American voters. The former president is welcome in red-ish Southern states where Obama is not, including Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and Arkansas.

 

To win Senate control, Republicans need to pick up six seats. They hope to hold onto Georgia, where Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss is retiring. Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, is in a tight race with Republican businessman David Perdue. Clinton will be the political star power at a Sept. 13 fundraiser for Nunn at the home of singer-dancer Usher in Atlanta.

 

Clinton also is helping Sens. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Kay Hagan in North Carolina, and Mark Pryor in Arkansas, among others.  He has campaigned for Senate candidate Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, who’s hoping to topple Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

He’s even going to Florida to help the party-changing Charlie Crist, who is in a close gubernatorial contest against incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Scott. Times have changed since Crist, previously a Republican and independent, called for Clinton’s presidential resignation in 1998.

The last thing Republicans want is an election about the glory that was Bill Clinton. They want the midterms to be about Obama and what they see as his failed policies, including health care reform. 

Typically the party of an unpopular president suffers significant losses in midterm elections.  In 2006, Republicans lost 30 House seats and six Senate seats when George W. Bush’s job approval ratings were the same or slightly lower than Obama’s ratings are now. About 42 percent of people approve of the job Obama is doing.

In 2010, Obama’s first midterm election, Democrats lost 63 House seats, ceding control of the House to Republicans, and six Senate seats.

But the 1998 midterm, the last of Clinton’s presidency, played out under the shadow of the Monica Lewinsky affair and Republicans plans for impeachment, and yet Democrats managed to add five House seats and lose no Senate seats.

That’s a strong enough performance to gladden Democratic hearts and kindle hope that Clinton can yet save the Senate.

In 1998, though, Clinton and Democrats had the wind of a booming economy at their backs in an election where no single issue dominated.

 

This year, voters are disgruntled with the economy and the country’s direction, and there’s again talk of impeachment. Republicans are already planning their GOP Senate agenda for next year.

 

With Democrats’ backs to the wall, Clinton’s magic looks awfully good. And Clinton, whether to show his own vigor or to score points for Hillary in advance of 2016, is only happy to oblige.

There are nine weeks until Election Day. And Bubba is back.

©2014 Marsha Mercer. All rights reserved.